The Last Jedi Rebounding From Slow 2nd Week…

Posted by Bret on 12/31/17 at 10:30 AM Category: The Last Jedi

A lot has been said about the unusually sharp divide between critics and moviegoers. But the box office performance of The Last Jedi immediately following its debut weekend was definitely disappointing. It had a historically bad drop (from a certain point of view) of almost 68% from the first weekend to the second. It also was a relatively slow performer during the first full week, and after a strong opening, fell behind Jurassic World's pace, leading some to declare the film a failure.

However, Christmas falling on a Monday, something that hadn't happened since 2006, was a huge factor working against it. Apparently most schools were still in session, so many potential moviegoers were not as available as they were two years ago and last year for The Force Awakens and Rogue One.

Forbes notes that The Last Jedi performed very strongly in its second full week:

every single "second weekday" gross for the Star Wars sequel has been higher than the previous week's respective weekday gross.

Read that again. That's impressive. Its second Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday outperformed those same days the previous week. That's a very strong rebound. And the third full weekend, which we are currently experiencing, is predicted to be "only" about a 20-25% drop from the previous weekend.

Despite the awkward holiday calendar, The Last Jedi will finish 2017 as the top film of the year, easily surpassing Beauty and The Beast in 17 days. Most likely before the end of its third full week, it will pass The Dark Knight, for 6th place all time domestically. Then it will work to climb past The Avengers, Jurassic World, and Titanic.

If it passes Titanic, The Last Jedi will have bettered the 30% drop that Star Wars sequels (ESB and AOTC) have seen at the box office after their respective first chapters (ANH and TPM).

Unless the numbers collapse completely after the new year, it would really be a strain for anyone to call this movie a box office flop.