As you are all aware, during the Sail Barge campaign, Hasbro pulled the equivalent of Han Solo's Deus ex machina moment during the Battle of Yavin by announcing a pack-in POTF Yak Face figure. It was the moment the battle turned and backing the Barge became a fait accompli.
In the immediate aftermath of that momentous announcement, I tried to give an estimate of what this figure would be worth. Based on a production run of roughly 5,000 pieces, I estimated it would be worth between $200 and $250. I was admittedly trying to be conservative because I will always be careful with "other people's money". Despite the production run being much higher, my estimate may have been too low by a significant margin.
Confirmed completed pre-sales are routinely between $250 and $400 with the vast majority going for over $300. This is crazy! Some people are recovering up to 80% of their barge purchase price by selling the Yak Face figure. This definitely exceeds what I expected.
Once the Barge starts shipping, I do expect that price to come down, however. It's the nature of the market, and it's all but guaranteed that some of those 8800 backers will be flooding the secondary market with their figures in hopes of duplicating these pre-sales. That supply flood will cool the value at least temporarily.