As we all know, the Ghost has already been backed. Despite being one of the more expensive HasLabs, trailing only Unicron, it funded in just under four days. There was absolutely no drama surrounding whether or not it would see production. Most HasLab veterans were confident after only a few hours, but that doesn't mean the campaign is completely without suspense. I think it's safe to say that the tier unlocks are high stakes:
The Ghost without the crew would feel lacking, so not getting to 17,000 backers would be a disappointment to say the least. If you're new to the HasLab scene, you might be worried now that we've entered the typical mid-campaign stall. Don't worry. This is completely normal. Crowd funding campaigns follow an inverse parabola trajectory. That means that most of the backers sign on in the first three days and the last three days of the campaign. The middle usually stagnates. The length of the campaign is just to make sure there is time for promotion and marketing, and for fans having a little time to decide whether to back or not. As reminder, you do not get charged until the end of the campaign regardless of when you back the project, so there is no upside in waiting to the last minute, yet most fans do.
At the time of this writing, the campaign is sitting at just under 9,300 backers. That is outstanding with a full 36 days of the campaign remaining. Every backer we get between now and September 3rd is money in the bank, and we're likely to get a mid-campaign organic bump when the Ghost makes it's first full live action appearance in the Ahsoka series which starts on August 23rd. The Ghost has made two live action appearances in Rogue One and The Rise of Skywalker, but those were cameos, and as every comic book collector knows, cameos don't count. If they did, Amazing Spider-Man 299 would be worth a heck of a lot more than it is. If, as is suspected, the Ghost is the "Millennium Falcon" of the Ahoska series, this bump could be significant.
So why is this trickle of backers "money in the bank" as far as I'm concerned? It's because "inverse parabola" is actually a misnomer to describe the past Vintage Collection HasLabs. The curves in both halves of a parabola are symmetric. In this case, it would mean the backer counts from the first three days and the last three days would be equal, but that's not the pattern we've observed with the Sail Barge and the Razor Crest. The last three days greatly exceeded the first three days in both cases. We had roughly 7,000 backers in the first three days of the Ghost campaign. If the last three days merely equals that, if would mean we only have to get 700 more backers before September 3rd to unlock Zeb. If it exceeds the first three days in a similar fashion to the Barge and Razor Crest, this could be the most successful Star Wars HasLab to date.
None of this suggest we should be complacent. There is a big grass roots component to HasLabs. Continue to do your part and be an advocate by sharing word of THE CAMPAIGN whenever you can assuming it won't get you stared at. Bringing it up in a client facing meeting would probably be a mistake unless you happen to be in a work place comedy. Alternatively, if you haven't backed it yet, what are you waiting for? You know you're going to regret it if you don't. It's $500 now or $1000 on the secondary market next holiday season. If you want to back, just click on the image below:
BTW, even if we don't unlock the remainder of the crew:
I fully suspect that we'll get a full Ghost crew even without the tier unlocks, so back with confidence. But that's an article for later in the campaign.