The Damage Doesn’t Look So Bad From Out Here

Solo: A Star Wars Story is definitely going to be a financial loss for LFL and Disney. In fact, it's probably going to miss the already lowered $400 million global expectation. This lead to a report from Collider that all future standalone films were on hold. That report has been denied by LFL sources. Prior to that denial, some fans speculated that the suspension of projects portended a shakeup of upper management of LFL. Confirmation bias is a tough hurdle to overcome.

Look, I absolutely hate the direction the Sequel Trilogy has taken...HATE IT. It is probably the last choice I would have made, along similar lines to what Mark Hamill thought of Rian Johnson's treatment of Luke Skywalker. Oddly though, I am entertained by the tale LFL decided to tell. Does that make sense? I desperately wish LFL chose to tell a different story, but I do enjoy the story they've chosen to tell. I would love it if Disney apologized for the direction LFL has taken the saga and cleaned house. I would also love to win Power Ball. It's simply not going to happen, and here's why.

According to THR, Solo is expected to lose $50 million. They write:

Wall Street analyst Barton Crockett says Solo will lose more than $50 million. Industry financing sources, however, say that figure could come in at $80 million or higher, although no one knows the exact terms of Disney's deals for home entertainment and television, among other ancillary revenues.

Let's work with that $80 million dollar high estimate. This was also based on a $400 million global box office, but Solo isn't even going to reach that. It's going to settle in somewhere in $350 range. So there's another $50 million to account for. Obviously not all of that box office would be profit so it wouldn't add to the projected loss dollar for dollar, but for the purpose of this discussion, we'll pretend it does. Well say that the updated projected loss is $130 million. So how does the impact LFL management's report card. Here are the net profits for each of the four films:

• $780 MM - The Force Awakens
  
• $319 MM - Rogue One
  
• $417 MM - The Last Jedi
  
• ($130) MM - Solo: A Star Wars Story
  

That means through four movies, LFL management has managed $1.39 billion in profit. BILLION! You don't have to like it, but what LFL has been doing is working. We're not in a position to force Disney to tell story we want. We're only entitled to choose whether or not to buy a ticket, and to this point, not many people are making that choice.

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